seamus wrote:The 28 day rainfall forecast for the Western District which covers the bulk of the ride can be found here http://www.weatherzone.com.au/long-range-forecast/28-day-rain/vic/western.
So far it looks clear and promising, but keep watching this link as it is updated daily.
Please note that this is a rainfall only forecast... nothing about wind, temperature or flies or.. snoring!
This is my eight consecutive ride, including the previous GVBR 2004 Great Ocean Road, where the lovely Lavers Hill weather (wind, rain, cold ) was not forecast, so beware!
victor wrote:Sorry, but I'm skeptical... does a 28-day forecast have any validity?
seamus wrote:victor wrote:Sorry, but I'm skeptical... does a 28-day forecast have any validity?
The forecast is a forecast of probability of rain based on current weather pattern and historical data, so it is quite valid.
For example, the < 25% probability of rain for Nov 30 means that when the weather pattern has been similar to now in this district at around this time of year, it has rained less than 25% of the time 17 days later . This is historical fact. What is means to me is if I were a betting man and had to place a bet today on whether it will rain on Nov 30 on the GVBR , I would bet NO rather than YES ( no each way bets allowed!)
victor wrote:Except that the GVBR, at 9 days, is an even shorter period than that, so even less predictable. It might be 9 dry days or 9 wet days, without making much impact on the longer-term rainfall average. I'm planning not to worry about it. I'll just bring along my waterproof top on my rides, and if it rains, well it's only water.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest